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Medical Science of Ukraine

Current

Vol. 22, No. 1, 2026

Medical Science of Ukraine

Medical Science of Ukraine

ISSN 2664-472X

EISSN 2664-4738 

Publisher: O.O. Bogomolets National Medical University



Retrieved from Vol. 22, No. 1, 2026

Carcinogenic consequences of missile and drone strikes in Ukraine: Fuel toxicology, mechanisms of carcinogenesis, and cancer incidence forecast (literature review)

Received 07.11.2025, Revised 01.01.1970, Accepted 18.03.2026 Published 30.03.2026

https://doi.org/10.32345/2664-4738.1.2026.21

Yeva Kyrylenko, Sergiy Ziablitsev

Abstract

Background. The massive use of missile and drone weaponry by the Russian Federation against Ukraine (over 83,000 units during 2022-2026) has led to the release of approximately 15,000 tons of toxic substances, including more than 140 tons of proven IARC Group 1 carcinogens. The hidden environmental disaster and the long latent period of chemical carcinogenesis (5-20 years) create a delayed threat of a large-scale increase in cancer incidence, necessitating immediate pathophysiological analysis and forecasting.
Aim: to conduct a pathophysiological analysis of the carcinogenic potential of missile systems and drone components, investigate the molecular mechanisms of their synergistic action, and evaluate the predicted epidemiological consequences for the population of Ukraine through 2042.
Materials and Methods. A systematic analysis of toxicological and epidemiological data regarding missile fuel components (heptyl, decalin), explosion detonation products, and UAV construction materials was performed. The search and selection of scientific sources were conducted in accordance with the PRISMA 2020 (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) methodology, utilizing the PubMed, Scopus, and Google Scholar databases. Identification of carcinogenic potential was based on the IARC classification. Predictive modeling was carried out based on the analysis of tumor latency periods and historical analogues of prolonged chemical exposure.
Results. It was established that the key risk factor is the synergistic effect of a mixture of carcinogens (PAHs, dioxins, heptyl, and heavy metals), which increases the risk of malignancy by 10-50 times. The mechanism by which dioxins induce CYP1A1 enzymes, accelerating the conversion of benzo(a)pyrene into the active mutagen BPDE, is described. It was found that 70-90% of the carcinogen dose enters the body through contaminated food chains due to bioaccumulation.
Conclusions. A peak increase in cancer incidence is expected between 2032 and 2038, with a possible rise in rates of 35-50% in the most affected regions. Projections suggest that by 2042, the cumulative effect of the war could lead to an additional 150,000-250,000 cancer cases. The establishment of a National Registry of Exposed Persons and the implementation of enhanced screening programs for high-risk groups are essential

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Keywords:

Environmental Carcinogenesis; Chemical Carcinogens; War-Related Exposure; Air Pollution, Chemical; Cancer Risk Assessment

Pages 179-193

Suggested citation

Kyrylenko, Ye., & Ziablitsev, S. (2026). Carcinogenic consequences of missile and drone strikes in Ukraine: Fuel toxicology, mechanisms of carcinogenesis, and cancer incidence forecast (literature review). Medical Science of Ukraine, 22(1), 179-193. https://doi.org/10.32345/2664-4738.1.2026.21

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ISSN 2664-472X; e-ISSN 2664-4738

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